Bear markets are a process of changing coin ownership. Weak hands sell to other weak hands. They then HODL a bag until they are under too much pain, they sell to a trader, who flips for a quick profit, and sells to a HODLer.
At this time, that coin gets take off the market.
Some coins go through many many weak hands, many trades, but eventually, a HODLer takes them away. It takes time, it is a slow process, but it creates the supply squeeze eventually.
This is the nature of human psychology.
What we appear to have seen in recent months is coming closer to this last phase of the process. HODLers seem to exist everywhere from $26k all the way up to $60k. They seem unwilling to sell and spend.
I sense we are closer to the end of this bear than the beginning, with the necessary caveat that macro still needs to play out this inflation –> deflation transition.
For your homework, give Arthur Hayes latest piece a read. He more or less captures my take on the next 3-months or so. It will be bumpy, but the end result of currency debasement by necessity remains in play.