Sometimes, you just get a gut feel, that something ain’t right. Then you notice another data point which makes you look deeper. Then you encounter more insight which conflicts with the growing divergence. Eventually, it all boils down to probabilities.

This is the humbling part about markets. It’s impossible to know the future, despite an infinite supply of folks who claim they can.

Over the last 6 months, you have probably watched my general views transition through the following phases:

  • FTX era –> scary as hell…but man…does it looks like capitulation.
  • Early 2023 –> bottom looks pretty sound, sub-$24k is deep value, above $24k I have less confidence.
  • Rally to $30k –> Trend is up, and I assume it remains up until proven otherwise.
  • Recently –> starting to see cracks in wider markets, future is increasingly unclear, be prepared.

In today’s video, I want to reinforce this last bullet. We are seeing a concentration of capital and volumes in lower risk assets (namely Bitcoin and stablecoins). This is happening not only in crypto, but also in stonks, where the top 7 stonks are leading, and the remaining 493 in the S&P 500 look miserable.

Liquidity is light, volumes are down, and risk appears to be manifesting.

Stay cautious folks. I’m not in the camp expecting $10k BTC, and to be honest, I’d be surprised if we get to $20k. But a little chop and roll for the next few months is becoming increasingly likely in my book.

This feels exactly like 2019…the bear is probably over…but its ghost haunts us still. At the time, I felt insane for DCA buying BTC in 2019…it just kept going lower. Today, I look back on those UTXOs (and particularly the $8k price tag) fondly.

Survive 2023, be patient, and make it to the other side. That is where the prizes are.