2024 was perhaps the biggest year in Bitcoin’s history, but will 2025 be even bigger? Join me as I preview 2025 with the themes, tokens and predictions I’m closely watching.
Key Takeaways
- 2025 is set to be another big year for Bitcoin ETFs, and we could see a rise in Bitcoin lending products.
- ‘Crypto x AI’ remains the dominant narrative, outperforming the market, but it likely gets too ahead of its skis.
- It’s the year the U.S. finally gets regulatory clarity, and all banks can hold crypto.
- Solana gets an ETF, but UNI is the most obvious winner in hindsight.
- DeSci catches a narrative & MegaETH piles the pressure on most Ethereum L2s
Contents
1. Bitcoin Lending Products
Prediction: Coinbase will restart its Bitcoin lending and collateral service in 2025, and we’ll see a rise in Bitcoin lending businesses.
One of Bitcoin’s best qualities is its scarce supply mixed with growing demand. Combined with its ability to be easily transported, sold and lent, Bitcoin is pristine collateral.
Bitcoin holders have one small problem: they sometimes have to sell their BTC for cash flow, as there isn’t an easy, safe and established way to lend their Bitcoin. As more holders enter the market, I expect to see more lending products offered.
Howard Lutnick—Donald Trump’s soon-to-be commerce secretary and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald—announced a Bitcoin lending product (with an initial $2B injection) at Bitcoin 2024. I expect we will see more announcements on this front, and as regulations become more favourable in the U.S., more exchanges could offer such services. Coinbase previously launched a Bitcoin lending service in 2021 but was forced to shut down the product due to regulatory pressure.
2. Crypto X AI Is This Cycles NFT Hype Bubble
Prediction: The AI sector will be the biggest sector gainer but most won’t make it
It’s becoming increasingly clear that 2025 will be the year of AI coins. We saw meme coins take centre stage throughout 2024 as the ‘it’ narrative, and as we start the year, AI coins are having a moment.
In my write-up last month, I covered why this narrative remains one to watch, and I think it will last beyond this crypto cycle. The demand for AI Agents is enormous, with one of the most popular frameworks for building these agents—AI16Z’s ‘Eliza’—the second most popular Github repository.
The crypto AI narrative seems to have more legs, and I anticipate crypto AI tokens will continue to attract interest if traditional AI development, news, and breakthroughs continue.
But this doesn’t change the fact that more crypto projects are lending into AI or using buzzwords to attract investment. As we saw with ICOs in 2017, NFTs in 2021, and meme coins in 2024, I expect AI to enter a real bubble. Especially since these “AI Agents” seem to be used for speculation or as marketing tools, with many vastly overestimating their capabilities.
Solana also held its AI hackathon last weekend, with winners announced on Jan. 10—if you’re interested in going deeper and finding real alpha, this is the place to watch.
For more information on this narrative, see my previous article below.
3. U.S. Gets Crypto Regulation…Finally
Prediction: We get at least one piece of cryptocurrency legislation passed in the U.S.
If you’ve been a member of Collective Shift for multiple years, you’d know I’m notorious for my focus on crypto regulation and overestimating when it will come.
During the Biden administration, there was no willingness to pass cryptocurrency legislation, so many attempts to do so fell short.
However, this is finally set to change, with the U.S. government and Congress more pro-crypto than ever before. I’d be shocked to see at least one piece of legislation not pass.
There are two in question:
- Market structure bill (known as FIT121): Create clear rules of the road, determine what constitutes a security vs. a commodity and establish other market structure guidelines.
- Stablecoin bill: Outline clear rules for creating and issuing stablecoins into the market.
These things take time, especially with a new administration, so although I’d love to see both happen, I’d be happy to see at least one. As reported by The Block, it appears to be a top priority.
“Should FIT21 and stablecoin legislation not pass during the lame duck, both bills will be a top priority for me in the 119th Congress.”
– French Hill (Republican co-lead of the House Financial Services Committee)
4. Banks Allowed To Hold Crypto, But Reserve Fund Falls Short
Prediction: SAB121 reversed in Trump’s first 100 days; however, we’re made to wait for a strategic reserve.
The change I’m most excited about with a new pro-crypto government is the reversal of SAB121, the most harmful policy the SEC has enacted under Gensler and Biden that no one talks about enough.
Essentially, it counts crypto as a liability on a bank’s balance sheets, making it practically impossible for banks to hold crypto for their customers. Currently, only exceptions can be made, stopping most banks from freely offering these services.
The rule was overturned in July but then vetoed by President Biden.
I believe this will have a profound impact in the coming years, as surveys consistently reveal most people would rather bank crypto with their traditional financial services than crypto exchanges or their own custody.
- Pew Research: 75% of Americans who have heard of cryptocurrencies are not confident in the current ways to “invest in, trade or use cryptocurrencies.”
- Zero Hash: 80% prefer using traditional financial services to access crypto.
- Paxos: 75% of respondents are likely or very likely to buy crypto from their primary bank if it were offered.
Getting this done, combined with market structure and stablecoins laws, might be far more pressing for the U.S. government than a strategic bitcoin reserve, so I give it a less than 10% chance of happening this year.
5. Uniswap To Be The Most Obvious Play In Hindsight
Prediction: Uniswap Labs investigation dropped & UNI outperforms the market
For me, the biggest name to watch in 2025 is Uniswap (UNI).
Uniswap has slipped outside the top 25 despite having many catalysts on the horizon. You might think there is limited upside at a $8B market cap; however, it has yet to come close to its 2021 high and ride the crypto wave higher.
Is this the most obvious play everyone is missing?
Uniswap Labs recently shared they’re targeting a Q1 2025 launch of its much-anticipated Unichain as a separate network built on Optimism’s ‘Superchain’. This is big because it creates more token utility for UNI and allows more revenue or staking rewards to flow to the UNI token.
They also have their much-anticipated Uniswap V4 coming out any week now. It is a known event, but what might not be priced in is the adoption it could create as it enables ‘hooks’, which is just a way to create unique products leveraging Uniswap.
Most importantly, a favourable regulatory environment could help Uniswap, especially if the SEC drops the investigation into Uniswap Labs. Just see the incoming Head of Trump’s new Crypto Council, especially mentioning DeFi.
6. Solana Keeps The Momentum Going
Prediction: Firedancer hits mainnet, SOL ETF approved, and SOL ends the year in the top 3.
The topic on everyone’s lips is when the Solana momentum will slow down.
I don’t expect SOL to have the same gains as 2023 and 2024, but I expect 2025 to be another strong year.
Solana still has many catalysts on the horizon:
- Full rollout of ‘Firedancer’ to make the network more resilient, performant and increase decentralisation.
- Fee market and issuance upgrades
- Release of the Solana Phone 2
- SOL spot ETF in the U.S.
A big concern is the sell-side pressure resulting from a large $2B unlock on Mar. 1 from institutional investors who bought cheap SOL during the FTX bankruptcy. If SOL withstands this event, it could be a positive unlock that removes a significant bearish headwind and allows SOL to continue to run higher.
7. Record Token Launches
Prediction: Monad and Berachain soar into the 50 as FOMO kicks on over SOL and SUI.
I’ve learned never to discount the layer one blockchain rotation. I expect the L1 rotation play to continue, with the launch of many high-profile blockchains in Q1 or Q2, such as Berachain, Monad and Story Protocol.
With many missing out on the Solana 10x, and if we see a further move higher, it could create a new wave of FOMO as people look for “the next SOL”. Sui is currently witnessing a ride higher on these hopes, and if SUI has a similar run, I expect the market to look at rotating into these new L1s.
Combined with a more favourable regulatory environment, we could see another huge year for altcoin token launches, such as big names like Pump.Fun or Polymarket.
8. MegaETH Adds Further Pressure On L2s
Prediction: OP outperforms, but MegaETH steals attention, liquidity and users from other L2s
I’m incredibly excited about the mainnet launch of MegaETH, which should happen in the first half of this year. MegaLabs raised a further $10M in mid-December, on top of its $20M raise in June, backed by some of the industry’s biggest names. MegaEth is another Ethereum L2 designed to focus on real-time low-latency transaction processing.
While it’s unclear whether it will have a native token, I expect MegaETH to steal attention away from other Ethereum L2s, further adding pressure to an already crowded market. Combined with the launch of Uniswap’s own L2, I expect 2025 to be a challenging year for most Ethereum L2s.
I’m a little more positive about Optimism’s OP. It seems to be a runaway winner of the standards battle, with many high-profile companies, projects and builders choosing its Superchain network. Its Superchain has an all-time high of 61% dominance, meaning almost two-thirds of L2s are built on Optimism.
It is worth noting that game developer CCP Games, Sony’s Soneium, and Unichain have all yet to launch their OP Stack chains out of testnet. Optimism Labs has also yet to fully roll out Superchain compatibility, and if it is rolled out this year, it could only cement Optimism’s lead.
9. A Wave Of Crypto ETFs
Prediction: Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs generate more net inflows than in 2024 & we see one altcoin ETF approved.
One of my favourite 2025 predictions, which I had to share with members, is from Bitwise. They expect ETFs to generate more adoption in 2025 than in 2024, as historically (such as with gold) most new ETFs have a bigger second year than the first
The BTC ETF blew the market away but with big names like Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Bank of America, and many more yet to offer these products, added support to more people could result in more BTC demand.
I also expect more altcoin ETF launches and, hopefully, staking added for Ethereum’s ETF, making it more attractive.
10. DeSci Generates Hype
Prediction: A DeSci token enters the top 200
I’ve noticed a correlation between outside news or breakthroughs and people looking to speculate on the ‘crypto’ version.
We saw this with the metaverse narrative and now with AI, and I expect this to continue. One area I’m closely looking at is the decentralised science (DeSci) space. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has his own project called Research Hub (recently featured in the major scientific journal Nature), and the area is gaining increasing attention. We saw a glimpse into this with VitaDAO (VITA) experiencing a big pump following CZ and Vitalik attending a DeSci event last November and attention growing around Bio Protocol’s (BIO) upcoming token generation event.
The DeSci category has a total market cap of only ~$800M or a tiny 0.02% dominance.
If we see breakthroughs in the Biotech space, which could be the next sector to benefit from AI, expect to see the longevity narrative heat up. The jury remains out on whether this will yield anything legitimate, if its goals are too idealistic, and if it just creates another inefficient vehicle for speculation. However, it could be worth monitoring as a sector no one is talking about.