Bitcoin Explained
Bitcoin Halving Explained: Dates, the Next Halving and the Four Year Cycle
Key points
- The halving cuts new Bitcoin supply in half every 210,000 blocks.
- Four halvings so far: 2012, 2016, 2020 and 20 April 2024.
- The next is expected around April 2028, when the reward falls to 1.5625 BTC.
- Market peaks and lows have followed a rough four year pattern, but it rhymes rather than repeats.
- Use the cycle to plan profit taking in advance, not to time every trade.
What is the Bitcoin halving?
Every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years, the number of new bitcoins paid to miners for each block is cut in half. That is the halving. It started at 50 BTC per block in 2009 and will keep halving until around 2140, when all 21 million bitcoins have been issued (Bitcoin.org: halving history). It is written into Bitcoin’s code, so nobody can speed it up, slow it down or skip it.
Bitcoin halving dates and rewards
| Halving | Date | Block | Reward after |
|---|---|---|---|
| First | 28 November 2012 | 210,000 | 25 BTC |
| Second | 9 July 2016 | 420,000 | 12.5 BTC |
| Third | 11 May 2020 | 630,000 | 6.25 BTC |
| Fourth | 20 April 2024 | 840,000 | 3.125 BTC |
| Fifth (estimated) | Around April 2028 | 1,050,000 | 1.5625 BTC |
Source: Bitcoin.org: halving history. The fifth halving date is an estimate, because blocks arrive on average every ten minutes, not exactly.
How the halving connects to the crypto market cycle
Since 2012, Bitcoin’s biggest peaks and its deepest lows have arrived roughly four years apart, with the strongest years usually landing in the 12 to 18 months after a halving. Investors call this the four year cycle. The logic is simple: if demand holds steady and new supply is cut, the balance tilts toward buyers.
At our October 2026 cohort, Ben described the pattern as roughly three years up and one year down, and was clear that it is not as simple as that. The Collective Shift Knowledge Hub view is that the cycle rhymes rather than repeats: many expected bigger markets and Bitcoin ETFs to smooth it out, yet the broad pattern has kept showing up.
Where the current cycle stands
After the fourth halving in April 2024, Bitcoin set a record high on 6 October 2025 (CoinDesk, 6 October 2025). It has since pulled back, briefly falling below US$80,000 in late October 2026 (The Block, 24 October 2026). Some cycle analysts expect a four year cycle low in this period, while others think ETF demand changes the pattern. Nobody knows for certain, which is exactly why a written plan matters more than a forecast.
Ben looks at where Bitcoin sits in its cycle and what he is watching next. From the Ben Simpson YouTube channel.
What the halving does not do
- It does not promise a price rise. Price depends on demand as well as supply.
- It does not set the timing. The gap between each halving and each peak has varied.
- It matters less each time. Each halving removes a smaller amount of new supply compared with the coins already issued.
- It does not apply to other coins. Altcoins have their own supply rules, even if they often move with Bitcoin.
How to use the cycle in your plan
The cycle is most useful for two jobs: keeping your expectations realistic through a downturn, and taking profits on the way up instead of after the peak. That is Step T in the 5-step SHIFT Method (Set your plan in writing, Hold Bitcoin as your core, Invest in on-chain businesses with real revenue, Filter every coin before you buy, Take profits on the way up): Take profits on the way up. Our Profit Ladder exit strategy guide shows how to set price or valuation rungs in advance, and in our cohort sell plan sessions members practise trimming a portion each time a position grows, so a strong market ends with money in the bank.
Ben walks through how he plans when and how much to sell during a strong market. From the Ben Simpson YouTube channel.
A simple cycle checklist
- Write down what you will do if Bitcoin falls 50 percent or more.
- Set profit taking rungs before the market gets exciting.
- Keep buying on a schedule if that is your plan, rather than trying to pick the bottom.
- Review the plan each quarter, not each day.
Cycle phases in plain English
| Phase | What it usually looks like | What a written plan says to do |
|---|---|---|
| Accumulation | Prices flat after a large fall, little media attention | Keep buying on schedule if that is your plan |
| Early growth | Bitcoin recovers, often around or after a halving | Hold the core and stick to your sizing |
| Late growth | Rapid rises, new investors and headlines everywhere | Take profits at the rungs you set in advance |
| Downturn | Falls of 50 percent or more, especially in altcoins | Hold the core, avoid panic selling, review the plan |
Every cycle has looked a little different. The phases are a way to recognise where emotions are likely to run high, so you can follow the decisions you made when you were calm.
Why altcoins move differently
Smaller coins have historically risen later and fallen harder than Bitcoin in each cycle. That is why many investors trim them earlier and in bigger slices, and why the core of the portfolio is usually Bitcoin.
Plan your next cycle with the SHIFT Method
Collective Shift has helped 1,000+ members build a written crypto plan with the 5-step SHIFT Method, live analyst sessions and the Live Crypto Portfolio. Founded in Melbourne in 2020 by TEDx speaker Ben Simpson, rated 4.8 out of 5 from 135+ Trustpilot reviews, and Platinum and Accelerator carry a 14-day money-back guarantee.
Quick questions
When is the next Bitcoin halving?
The next halving happens at block 1,050,000, expected around April 2028. The exact date depends on how quickly blocks are mined, so it is estimated rather than fixed.
What happens to the Bitcoin reward at the next halving?
The reward for mining a block falls from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC, so roughly half as many new bitcoins enter circulation each day.
Does the halving make Bitcoin go up?
Not automatically. The halving cuts new supply, but price depends on demand. Past halvings were followed by strong markets, but the timing and size of each move have been different, and past patterns are no promise of future results.
What is the four year crypto cycle?
It is the pattern of Bitcoin peaks and lows roughly every four years, which has lined up with the halvings. Collective Shift sees it as a useful framework that rhymes rather than repeats.
When will all bitcoins be mined?
Halvings continue until around the year 2140, when the last fraction of the 21 million coins is issued.
How should I use the cycle in my plan?
Use it to set expectations and to plan profit taking in advance, not to time every trade. Write down when you will take profits and what you will hold through a downturn.
Written by Ben Simpson, founder of Collective Shift and TEDx speaker, and reviewed by Matt Willemsen, Director of Research. As of November 2026.
Published 2 November 2026. Updated 2 November 2026.
General information only, not personal financial advice. Collective Shift provides research and education. Consider your own circumstances and speak with a licensed financial adviser before acting.