Crypto Definitions
What Is the MVRV Ratio? A Plain English Guide for Bitcoin
Key points
- MVRV stands for market value to realised value.
- Realised value adds up every coin at the price when it last moved, a rough picture of what holders paid.
- High readings have appeared near past cycle peaks, and readings near 1 near past lows.
- It is one input in a written plan, not a timing tool on its own.
How is MVRV calculated?
MVRV divides market value by realised value. Market value is the familiar market cap: the current price multiplied by the coins in circulation. Realised value values each coin at the price when it last moved on chain, then adds them up. Because the blockchain is public, analysts can calculate this for Bitcoin without relying on surveys.
When MVRV is 2, the market values Bitcoin at twice what holders, on average, paid. When it is 1, the market value and the average cost are about the same.
How to read high and low readings
Ben Simpson calls MVRV one of his favourite charts in his quarterly portfolio review lesson on YouTube. As he explains, readings near the low zone have historically formed bottom signals, while very high readings showed most of the market sitting in profit, which has lined up with heavy profit taking.
| Reading | What it suggests | How investors use it |
|---|---|---|
| Near or below 1 | Average holder near break-even or at a loss | A cue to review accumulation rules |
| Middle range | Moderate unrealised profit | Stick to the written plan |
| Very high | Large unrealised profit across the market | A cue to review profit taking rules |
What is the MVRV Z-score?
The MVRV Z-score is a variation that measures how far market value sits from realised value, adjusted for how much the gap usually swings. It is designed to make extreme readings easier to compare across cycles. Both versions answer the same question: how stretched is the market compared with what holders paid?
Limits of the MVRV ratio
- Lost coins still count in realised value at their old prices.
- Coins moved between wallets by exchanges and funds can reset their realised price without a real sale.
- Each cycle has peaked at a different reading, so there is no fixed sell number.
That is why MVRV is most useful alongside other measures such as the 50 week and 200 week moving averages, sentiment and liquidity. Our guide to on-chain analysis covers the wider toolkit.
How Collective Shift uses MVRV
In the 5-step SHIFT Method, MVRV sits in the regular review rather than driving decisions on its own. The plan comes first, and readings like MVRV help decide whether a rule in that plan has been triggered, for example a step on a profit ladder. Ben puts it simply: information on its own is not that helpful unless you have a plan to act on it.
Where to find MVRV data
MVRV and MVRV Z-score charts are published by on-chain data providers such as Glassnode and by free chart sites. Check how each one defines realised value, because small methodology differences change the readings.
Frequently asked questions
What does a high MVRV ratio mean?
A high MVRV ratio means Bitcoin’s market value is well above what holders paid on average, so many are sitting on large unrealised profits. In past cycles very high readings have appeared near market peaks.
What does an MVRV ratio below 1 mean?
A reading below 1 means market value is below realised value, so the average holder is at a loss. In past cycles these periods have lined up with market lows.
Is MVRV a reliable signal?
It has been a useful guide in past cycles, but every cycle peaked at a different reading. Use it as one input in a written plan alongside other measures, not as a standalone buy or sell signal.
What is realised value?
Realised value adds up every coin at the price when it last moved on the blockchain. It gives a rough picture of the total cost basis of all holders.
Related guides
- On-chain analysis explained
- The Bitcoin halving and the crypto market cycle
- How to build a crypto exit strategy with a profit ladder
- Glossary: on-chain analytics
- Crypto glossary
This guide is general education only and is not personal financial advice. Collective Shift Pty Ltd, ABN 78 650 977 325.
Written by Ben Simpson, Founder of Collective Shift, and reviewed by Matt Willemsen, Director of Research. Published 4 November 2026. Updated 4 November 2026.