Crypto Definitions
What Is Realised Price in Crypto and Why Do Investors Watch It?
Key points
- Realised price is realised cap divided by circulating supply.
- It approximates the average cost base of all holders.
- When market price falls below it, the average holder is sitting at a loss.
- It pairs with the MVRV ratio, which divides market cap by realised cap.
How is realised price calculated?
First, on-chain analytics providers calculate realised cap by valuing each coin at the price when it last moved on the blockchain, rather than today’s price. Dividing realised cap by the circulating supply gives realised price. Providers such as Glassnode and CryptoQuant publish it for Bitcoin, and their numbers can differ slightly.
Market price vs realised price
| Situation | What it suggests | How investors read it |
|---|---|---|
| Market price well above realised price | Most holders are in profit | Often a sign of a heated market |
| Market price near realised price | The average holder is near break even | Often seen in weaker markets |
| Market price below realised price | The average holder is at a loss | In past cycles, often near deep bear market lows |
How does realised price link to MVRV?
The MVRV ratio divides market value by realised value. When market price equals realised price, MVRV is 1. Our guide to on-chain analysis explains how these metrics fit together.
What has realised price shown in past cycles?
In past Bitcoin cycles, periods when the market price traded near or below realised price have often lined up with the later stages of bear markets. That history makes it a popular piece of context. It is not a forecast, and each cycle has looked a little different.
Limits of realised price
- Lost coins still count at the price when they last moved.
- Exchange and custody movements can blur who actually bought when.
- It works best for Bitcoin, which has a long, transparent history.
How Collective Shift uses realised price
On-chain metrics like realised price are part of the context Ben Simpson shares on his YouTube channel and that the research team reviews. In the 5-step SHIFT Method, they support a written plan and a regular review, such as the rebalance routine, rather than driving trades on their own.
Frequently asked questions
What does realised price mean in Bitcoin?
It is an estimate of the average price at which all Bitcoin in circulation last moved on the blockchain, a rough average cost base for the market.
What happens when Bitcoin trades below realised price?
It suggests the average holder is at a loss. In past cycles this has often happened late in bear markets, but it is not a guarantee.
Is realised price the same as cost basis?
It is similar in spirit but measured across the whole market. Your own cost base for tax depends on your own purchases and records.
Where can I find realised price?
On-chain analytics providers such as Glassnode and CryptoQuant publish realised price charts for Bitcoin.
Related guides
- On-chain analysis explained
- The Bitcoin halving and the crypto market cycle
- How long should you hold crypto?
- Glossary: on-chain analytics
- Crypto glossary
This guide is general education only and is not personal financial advice. Collective Shift Pty Ltd, ABN 78 650 977 325.
Written by Ben Simpson, Founder of Collective Shift, and reviewed by Matt Willemsen, Director of Research. Published 4 November 2026. Updated 4 November 2026.