The Pro Investor Newsletter is your go-to resource for staying updated with the crypto market and price-sensitive news. Emailed monthly. Below is a copy of the newsletter. If you are a Pro member and not receiving the Pro Investor Newsletter, please contact us through our member chat at the bottom right corner of your screen.
Foreword: When The Facts Change, I Change My Mind
Two quarters down for 2023, two quarters of gains for crypto.
Indeed, after a disastrous 2022, crypto rebounded strongly in the first half of this year.
Accumulation of BTC and ETH since late last year has proven a sound strategy so far, as has my decision to avoid altcoins, the vast majority of which have underperformed BTC and ETH year to date.
I’ve been pleased to see PENDLE’s continued momentum amid this challenging period for altcoins, particularly in recent weeks. PENDLE is now +340% since my Feb. 20 post describing why I’m considering investing in it. (In that same period, BTC is +26% and ETH is +11%.)
Of the top 900 cryptocurrencies by market cap, PENDLE ranks second for year-to-date returns in USD terms (+1,515%). While this is certainly a strong return, the fact that it’s enough to rank second illustrates just how rough things have been in the altcoin market.
Of this same list, only 36 have posted year-to-date returns above 200%. Further, only 100 of the top 900 have outperformed BTC’s year-to-date return of 84%.
All that is to say, altcoins are severely out of favour. For long-term investors looking to allocate to these higher-risk cryptocurrencies, such as myself, these conditions are ideal.
The question, of course, is when to start scooping up beaten-down altcoins and which ones to target.
As those who read last month’s issue of the Pro Investor Newsletter would know, I was planning to start accumulating a long-term position in SOL by the end of June.
That was my plan based on the facts available at the time.
Then, the facts changed. So I went full John Maynard Keynes and changed my mind.
When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?
John Maynard Keynes
Here’s what happened: Shortly after I published last month’s newsletter, a number of non-crypto-native brokers and exchanges (e.g. eToro, SoFi, Robinhood) delisted altcoins that the SEC alleged as securities in its lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase. SOL was one of these.
All of these altcoins fell heavily in the second half of June. There were legitimate concerns surrounding whether crypto-native exchanges (e.g. Coinbase, Kraken) would also delist these altcoins. If they did, prices would’ve crashed further. This was enough for me to hold off buying.
A few weeks on, and no delistings of this kind have occurred. It’s now safe to assume that this concern has passed.
Therefore, based on the current facts, I now plan on opening a long-term position in SOL by the end of July. Following this, I’ll target some others—most likely LDO and ARB. These will constitute a very small portion of my portfolio.
As for BTC and ETH, I’ll keep adding to my long-term positions while prices are at these levels.
Matt Willemsen
Head of Research & Content
June Recap: BlackRock’s Surprise ETF Filing Steals Spotlight
When last month’s issue of the Pro Investor Newsletter was sent, it looked as though the SEC’s lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase would dominate the headlines and weigh on the price of BTC—and, therefore, the overall crypto market—for the foreseeable future.
Enter, BlackRock.
Amid a deep bear market in which crypto has battled severe headwinds, the world’s largest asset manager and ETF issuer filed for a spot bitcoin ETF on June 15.
It’s no exaggeration to call this the most bullish news for Bitcoin so far this year.
There are many reasons why BlackRock’s proposed ETF is such a big deal. (Matt broke this down for investors in June.)
The main reason is simply because of the entity behind the ETF filing, BlackRock. It’s hard to overstate what it means to have such a politically influential powerhouse of finance willing to be associated with Bitcoin.
As for the market’s response to the filing, it was predictably bullish. Pre-filing, the SEC’s lawsuits and other regulatory actions had dragged BTC below $25,000 for the first time since mid-March.
Within days of the surprise filing, BTC had soared to a 12-month high of $31,400. It has held above $30,000 ever since.
This BlackRock-induced rally caused BTC to post a monthly gain (+11.9%), a strong rebound after suffering its first monthly loss of the year in May. Notably, ETH posted its sixth consecutive monthly gain (+3.2%).
(Note, while the SEC’s lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase did technically occur in June, they are not covered here because we did so in last month’s issue of the Pro Investor Newsletter. This news was more significant than BlackRock’s ETF filing. Therefore, if you didn’t see our previous issue, this copy is available on our Member Platform.)
July Preview: Short-Term Haze Amid Quiet Market
With crypto having rallied so much already this year, predicting what will happen in the short term has become much more difficult.
In terms of potentially price-sensitive events in July, there is nothing to highlight. (Of note, August looks set to be far more eventful, mainly because the proposed ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF requires a decision by the SEC by August 13. It can approve or reject the application or postpone a decision.)
From a macro standpoint, the known events that have the greatest potential to move markets are the U.S. CPI release (Jul. 12) and the Fed’s rate decision (Jul. 26). Annual CPI is expected to be 3.1%, a decrease from May’s reading of 4.0% and a sharp fall from last year’s peak reading of above 9%. As for the Fed’s decision, the overwhelming expectation is that it increases rates by another 25 basis points.
Notably, since the start of the year, BTC’s correlation with U.S. stocks has weakened considerably to the point where they are essentially uncorrelated. Despite this, monitoring the macro landscape remains as crucial as ever for crypto investors. It’s hard to see macro not playing a role with respect to the timing of the next crypto bull run. After all, crypto is still one of the purest risk-on asset classes out there.
For more on the state of the crypto market, altcoins and the global economy, click the relevant links below to go to our new monthly member-only reports.
- Crypto Market (Jul. 4): Updates on the market, Bitcoin, Ethereum and must-know industry news.
- Altcoins (Jul. 7): Coverage of altcoins that have caught our analysts’ attention. In this report: ATOM, LDO, OP, AR and ILV.
- Macro (Jul. 3): Explanations of the 5 most important trends to monitor.
Kind regards,
Collective Shift