What Are On-Chain Metrics?

On-chain metrics are measurements built from the public data recorded on blockchains. Every Bitcoin and Ethereum transaction is visible, so analysts can track how coins move between holders, exchanges and miners, how long coins sit unmoved, and how much profit or loss holders are sitting on. Our analysts use them alongside fundamental research to understand market cycles, network usage and investor behaviour. They are not a trading signal on their own.

Key Takeaways

• On-chain metrics come from public blockchain data, so they show what holders do, not what they say.
• Flow metrics (exchange and miner flows) show where coins are moving. They do not tell you why.
• Profit metrics (MVRV, NUPL, SOPR) estimate whether holders are in profit or at a loss, which helps frame where a market sits in its cycle.
• Age metrics (dormancy, coin days destroyed) show when long-held coins start moving again.
• Use several metrics together and as one input to a written plan. No single chart predicts price.

How On-Chain Data Fits Into Your Research

Fundamental analysis asks whether a network is worth owning. Technical analysis studies price charts. On-chain analysis adds a third view: what holders are actually doing with their coins. It can reveal things the other two miss, such as long-term holders selling into strength, or coins steadily leaving exchanges for self-custody.

Treat on-chain readings the way you would treat a single time frame on a price chart: useful, but never the whole picture. Our crypto research page explains how our analysts combine these inputs.

Flow Metrics: Where Coins Are Moving

Exchange flows

Exchange flows measure coins sent to and from addresses that belong to exchanges. Net inflows mean more coins arrived than left. A spike in inflows can mean holders are getting ready to sell. Sustained outflows can mean holders are moving coins into their own wallets for the long term. Exchange flows tell you nothing about intention: coins also move for lending, collateral or internal exchange housekeeping. CryptoQuant (CryptoQuant) is a common source.

Miner flows and miner balances

Bitcoin miners receive newly issued coins as block rewards and often sell some to cover costs such as hardware, electricity and staff. Miner outflows track coins leaving miner addresses, and miner balances track what they hold. Rising outflows can point to more miner selling. Since the April 2024 halving cut the block reward to 3.125 BTC, miners receive fewer new coins to sell.

Profit and Loss Metrics

Realised value

Most profit metrics start with realised value (or realised cap). Instead of pricing every coin at the current price, it prices each coin at the price when it last moved on chain. That approximates what holders, as a group, paid.

Market value to realised value (MVRV)

MVRV divides market value by realised value. Above 1, the average holder is in profit; below 1, the average holder is at a loss. Historically MVRV has risen through bull markets and fallen in bear markets, and very high readings have come near cycle peaks. Glassnode documents the calculation (Glassnode Docs).

Net unrealised profit or loss (NUPL)

NUPL compares the total unrealised profit and loss of all holders with the market value of the network. Unrealised means the profit or loss a holder would lock in if they sold today. When most holders are sitting on large paper gains, more of them may decide to take profits. When most are at a loss, many prefer to hold rather than sell.

Spent output profit ratio (SOPR)

SOPR looks at coins that actually moved on a given day and compares the price when they moved with the price when they were last moved. Above 1, coins are being spent at a profit; below 1, at a loss. It shows realised behaviour, while MVRV and NUPL show paper positions.

Metric	What it measures	Reading it
Exchange flows	Coins moving to and from exchanges	Inflows can mean selling ahead; outflows can mean self-custody. Not intention.
Miner flows	Coins leaving miner addresses	Higher outflows can mean more miner selling
MVRV	Market value divided by realised value	Above 1: average holder in profit. Below 1: at a loss.
NUPL	Unrealised profit minus loss, relative to market value	High: large paper gains. Negative: holders at a loss.
SOPR	Profit or loss on coins spent that day	Above 1: coins sold at a profit
Dormancy	Average age of coins that moved	Rising: older coins returning to circulation

Age Metrics: When Old Coins Move

Glassnode and Santiment (Santiment) track how long coins sat unmoved before they were spent. Glassnode’s dormancy is the average number of days each coin spent that day had been idle. Santiment reports the total amount of previously idle coins that moved.

High dormancy means older coins are returning to circulation, which often happens when long-term holders take profits. Low dormancy and few old coins moving can suggest holders are content to keep holding. As with exchange flows, the reason is unknown: old coins also move when holders upgrade wallets or reorganise their security.

Network Activity Metrics

Active addresses, transaction counts and fees show how much a network is being used. For smart contract platforms and DeFi, total value locked (TVL), fees and revenue add another view, and DefiLlama (DefiLlama) publishes these for free. Usage metrics are central to our research on on-chain businesses with real revenue.

Where to Find On-Chain Data

• Glassnode: Bitcoin and Ethereum holder, profit and supply metrics. Free tier with limited charts.
• CryptoQuant: exchange and miner flow data. Free tier available.
• Santiment: on-chain, social and development activity. Free tier available.
• Dune: free community dashboards built with SQL. See our Dune Analytics guide.
• DefiLlama: free TVL, fees and revenue data for DeFi protocols and chains.

For a longer list grouped by job, see our guide to the best crypto analytics tools.

Common Mistakes When Reading On-Chain Metrics

• Reading one metric in isolation. Check whether flows, profit metrics and age metrics tell the same story.
• Assuming movement means selling. Coins move for many reasons.
• Ignoring exchange address labelling. Data providers label addresses differently, so the same metric can differ between sites.
• Treating past cycle levels as targets. Market structure changes, including the growth of ETFs and custodians that hold coins off exchange.

On-chain data works best when it informs a plan you wrote in advance, such as when you will take profits. Our guide to building a crypto exit strategy with a Profit Ladder shows how.

Watch: Ben Simpson on this topic

How the Collective Shift research team reads on-chain data

Collective Shift's on-chain analysis uses mean reversion. In the research note "Onchain Analysis: How High?", the team applied Z-score transformations to metrics such as the MVRV ratio to estimate price levels where each model would be stretched far above its long-term average.

The team frames these as moving targets rather than predictions: a framework that can be applied at any time and revisited as the cycle evolves, so investors keep a clear head.

• Start with MVRV to see where price sits against the average cost basis.
• Check exchange flows for coins moving on or off exchanges.
• Look at long-term holder behaviour for signs of distribution.
• Confirm with price structure and macro liquidity before acting.

“The MVRV ratio is looking at the market value, so what the price of Bitcoin is, versus the realized value.”

Ben Simpson, Founder of Collective Shift (October 2026), in The 30-Minute Crypto Portfolio Review I’d Do Every Quarter

Where this guide comes from

This guide is written and reviewed by the Collective Shift research team. Collective Shift is a crypto research and education company founded in 2020 in Melbourne, and a research and education partner to Coinbase, Swyftx and CoinSpot. Sources used in this update:

• Video: Your Bitcoin Strategy Is Wrong If You're Investing $50K+, Ben Simpson on YouTube (2026-04-16)
• Video: The 30-Minute Crypto Portfolio Review I’d Do Every Quarter, Ben Simpson on YouTube (2026-10-15)
• Collective Shift Knowledge Hub: Onchain Analysis: How High?, Collective Shift research (Oct 2024) (ref 23458786), original source: collectiveshift.io

Last updated 30 October 2026. General information only, not financial advice. Consider your own circumstances and seek professional advice before making investment decisions.

General information only. Collective Shift provides research and education, not personal financial advice. We don’t manage your money or hold your crypto. Consider your own circumstances and speak with a licensed adviser and a registered tax agent before acting. Digital assets are volatile and you can lose money. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Third-party products are named for education only; Collective Shift does not endorse them and they can change their features at any time.